Not a SaaSpocalypse, but not evenly spread

Forrester has published a model covering 17 technology and service categories across more than 200 markets, scored on nine drivers of disruption — among them how substitutable the work is by AI, how labour-intensive it is, the commercial model, and switching costs.

Four groups

• Disrupted — AI reproduces the core value. Labour-intensive work such as software development and creative services is hit hardest.
• Neutral — physical, regulated or high-switching-cost offerings, largely unmoved.
• Contested — able to pivot toward the accelerated group by shifting R&D.
• Accelerated — infrastructure, data and integration providers selling picks and shovels for AI workloads.

The argument against the blanket collapse story is structural rather than optimistic: the drivers that make a market vulnerable are not present everywhere, and two of the four groups see demand rise with enterprise AI adoption rather than fall.

The useful part for a vendor is the diagnostic, not the conclusion. Substitutability, labour intensity, pricing model and switching cost are four questions any product can be scored against without buying the report — and a seat-priced product doing labour-intensive work that AI can reproduce is in the first group regardless of what its category is called.

The category breakdowns and the underlying data sit behind Forrester's client platform, so what is public is the framework rather than the scores.